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OCTOBER 26,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

BEN SOARS IN IOWA – From Breitbart:   A Monmouth University poll released Monday shows Dr. Ben Carson surging to a mammoth 14 point lead over Donald Trump. Currently, the good doctor leads the billionaire businessman 32% to 18%. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) are tied for third at 10%. Jeb Bush is at 8%. Carly Fiorina, who has pretty much disappeared from the news cycle over the past two weeks, is at just 4%.  It is safe to say that Carson is now the leader in Iowa. Of the last five polls taken over the last 10 days, Carson’s leading by an average of 9%. The closest Trump has come to Carson is a tie in one of these polls, and as of now that poll looks like an outlier.  Past election campaigns show that victory in Iowa is not a guarantee of victory anywhere else.  The real news is that Carson has done so well against Trump.  Carson has to repeat that performance in other states, though, and that doesn't seem to be happening...as of now.  We still have plenty of time before the first primary voting begins early next year.

MAJOR COCKTAIL PARTY NEWS – From the Daily Caller:   While discussing the efficacy of a hypothetical Speaker Paul Ryan, MSNBC host Melissa Harris-Perry cautioned guest Alfonso Aguilar against using the phrase “hard worker,” implying that it is somehow offensive to African Americans.  “I just want to pause on one thing because I don’t disagree with you that I actually think Mr. Ryan is a great choice for this role, but I want us to be super careful when we use the language ‘hard worker,'” she told Aguilar.  “I actually keep an image of folks working in cotton fields on my office wall because it is a reminder about what hard work looks like.”  “In the context of relative privilege,” Perry added, “when you talk about work-life balance and being a hard worker, the moms who don’t have health care… we don’t call them hard workers. We call them failures. We call them sucking off the system.”  “Really, y’all do,” Harris said in reference to Republicans and conservatives.  Ms. Harris-Perry has lived on another planet for many years, so we should be understanding.

ANOTHER GREAT MOMENT IN EDUCATION – From Fox:   The Border Patrol is looking for a few good men and women -- but not angry confrontation, and that concern is what prompted the agency to back out of a college job fair.  Accusing the federal agency charged with protecting U.S. borders of “unjust killings, …. racial profiling, use of force, and unjust violence,” protesters at University of California-Irvine succeeded in stopping the Border Patrol from taking part in a weekend career fair - and blocked students from learning more about a possible job opportunity.  "We regret to inform the community that out of concern for the safety of CBP Recruitment Officers, U.S. Customs & Border Protection will no longer be participating in the UCI Fall Career Fair,” U.S. Customs and Border Protection spokesman Ralph DeSio told FoxNews.com, instead referring students to the agency’s recruitment website.  Not shocking.  The hard left on college campuses has tried to block military recruiters for years.  One of these days Congress will develop the spine to threaten a cutoff of federal funds to colleges and universities that fail to safeguard civil liberties.

October 26, 2015       Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 12:44 P.M. ET:  British MP Dan Hannan comments eloquently on the loss last week of Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada, who went down to electoral defeat.  From the Washington Examiner: 

The free world has lost its leader. In the absence of a vigorous American foreign policy, Canada's Stephen Harper supplied his own. For the better part of a decade, he energetically championed Western interests. He was serious about fighting terrorism, keen on free trade and prepared to deploy proportionate force in defense of freedom.

His defeat in last week's Canadian general election will be felt far beyond that sparse, chilly country. When other Western leaders fretted about Israel's 2006 Lebanon war, he gave his full backing to the Jewish state. When others dithered over Putin's invasion of Ukraine, he led international condemnation. Obliged to meet Vladimir Putin at a summit meeting, he was admirably curt: "I guess I'll shake your hand, but I have only one thing to say to you: Get out of Ukraine."

Canada, like most countries, partly defines itself with reference to what it isn't; but Harper was uncomplicatedly pro-American and pro-British. In his first overseas speech as prime minister, he told a London audience how glad he was that his was a common-law, Anglosphere nation. As a matter of historical fact, this might not seem especially radical; but, my goodness, what a refreshing break from the line taken by previous Canadian leaders, namely that their country was a happy multiculti fusion of First Peoples and Acadians and Vietnamese boat people.

COMMENT:  Absolutely true.  Harper is a giant compared to Obama.  As a world leader, he was in the Reagan tradition.  We will miss him.  And we will now be entertained by his elected successor, Justin Trudeau, who has much in common with Barack Obama.  Both are children.  Both are unprepared.  Both are loved by the chattering classes. 

Canada may be fun for the next few years, but it won't be serious.

October 26, 2015       Permalink

COLLAPSE OF OBAMACARE? – AT 11:51 A.M. ET:  Silvio Canto Jr. refers us to a piece in The Wall Street Journal warning of things to come, bad things, in Obamacare.    Remember that Obamacare was structured so that the benefits came first, and the costs came later.  A really dishonest scheme.  Americans will feel the real impact once Obama leaves office. 

ObamaCare’s image of invincibility is increasingly being exposed as a political illusion, at least for those with permission to be honest about the evidence. Witness the heretofore unknown phenomenon of a “free” entitlement that its beneficiaries can’t afford or don’t want.

This month the Health and Human Services Department dramatically discounted its internal estimate of how many people will join the state insurance exchanges in 2016. There are about 9.1 million enrollees today, and the consensus estimate—by the Congressional Budget Office, the Medicare actuary and independent analysts like Rand Corp.—was that participation would surge to some 20 million. But HHS now expects enrollment to grow to between merely 9.4 million and 11.4 million.

Recruitment for 2015 is roughly 70% of the original projection, but ObamaCare will be running at less than half its goal in 2016. HHS believes some 19 million Americans earn too much for Medicaid but qualify for ObamaCare subsidies and haven’t signed up. Some 8.5 million of that 19 million purchase off-exchange private coverage with their own money, while the other 10.5 million are still uninsured. In other words, for every person who’s allowed to join and has, two people haven’t.

Among this population of the uninsured, HHS reports that half are between the ages of 18 and 34 and nearly two-thirds are in excellent or very good health. The exchanges won’t survive actuarially unless they attract this prime demographic: ObamaCare’s individual mandate penalty and social-justice redistribution are supposed to force these low-cost consumers to buy overpriced policies to cross-subsidize everybody else. No wonder HHS Secretary Sylvia Mathews Burwell said meeting even the downgraded target is “probably pretty challenging.”

COMMENT:  We didn't need a complete rewrite of the health-care system to repair problems.  But the socialist/Dems went all in, hoping to climb the staircase to socialized medicine.  The staircase is collapsing, and the next president will be burdened with the task of cleaning up the mess.  My fear is that we'll get less care for more money, which is usually where government control leads. 

October 26, 2015        Permalink

WRONG TRACK – AT 10:19 A.M. ET:   Overwhelmingly, Americans believe the country is on the wrong track.  From the Washington Examiner: 

An overwhelming majority of American voters think the country is headed down the wrong path, according to a new public opinion survey commissioned by Clout Research.

The new poll of about 800 likely voters found that only nine of 100 Republicans and 15 of 100 independents believe the country is going in the right direction. A little over 50 percent of self-identified Democrats (51.9 percent) believe the country has taken a turn for the worst while 83.9 percent of independents and 87.4 percent of Republicans hold the same belief.

Despite enjoying a president from their own party, only 44 of 100 Democrats in the survey said they believe the U.S. "is on the right track."

"The latest WND.com/Clout Research survey shows that the dramatic dissatisfaction that Republican voters toward the Obama administration since early in his first term has spread to include all of Washington," Fritz Wenzel, a partner at Clout Research, said in a statement accompanying the results.

COMMENT:  I'm not familiar with Clout Research, and so I'm depending on the reliability of the Washington Examiner in reporting these findings.

Assuming the poll is accurate, it is up to the GOP to exploit public dissatisfaction by choosing a strong candidate for president and running a superb campaign.  That campaign must include a huge get-out-the-vote effort to counter the Democratic ground game, which has always been superior.  The only poll that counts, as they say, is the one on election day.

October 26, 2015       Permalink

A REAL CONVENTION? – AT 9:55 A.M. ET:  Fascinating piece in the New York Post by ace political reporter Fred Dicker.  Is it possible that the Republican Party is heading for a brokered convention?  Brokered conventions are rare in this age of heavy primaries, but can happen:

With no clear front-runner and Donald Trump and Ben Carson continuing to dominate the crowded presidential field, two top New York Republicans predict a brokered convention in Cleveland next summer — with the possibility of a surprise GOP ticket emerging.

“At this point, I see a brokered convention in Cleveland,’’ former US Sen. Alfonse D’Amato, who backs long-shot Ohio Gov. John Kasich and plans to attend the July convention, told The Post.

“It would be the first time in a long time, but I believe there’s a reasonable chance that there will be no clear winner after the primaries are concluded — provided that neither Trump nor Carson has collapsed,’’ he continued.

State GOP Chairman Ed Cox said he also saw a “real possibility of a contested convention because there are so many good candidates and no clear leader.”

“You could have a lot of maneuvering for support at the convention. It could be very exciting,’’ Cox continued.

New York’s “proportional’’ — as opposed to “winner-take-all’’ — April 19 GOP primary could become all the more important if there’s no front-runner, Cox said.

COMMENT:  Could be, and it could be great for the Republican Party.  A brokered convention would dramatically increase TV viewing.  It would be a real contest, a World Series of politics.

And a surprise ticket could emerge.  I love those smoke-filled rooms.  The people filling them with smoke have often made some good decisions.

October 26, 2015        Permalink

OCTOBER 25,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:51 P.M. ET:

MOMENTOUS NEWS – From CNN:  Washington (CNN) Chris Christie was asked to leave Amtrak's quiet car Sunday morning after passengers complained to a conductor about the New Jersey governor yelling at his security detail and into his cell phone, according to a rider.  But a woman who sat across from Christie said the incident was no big deal, and that the once the governor learned he was in the quiet car, he left quickly and courteously.  This is what passes for news on a slow-news day.  Tomorrow:  Donald Trump scheduled to sneeze.

WE ELECTED ONE TOO – From TIME:   A television comedian with no prior political experience won Guatemala’s presidential election by a landslide on Sunday, capitalizing on a corruption scandal that engendered national hostility toward the country’s ruling old guard.  Forty-six-year-old Jimmy Morales, who once played a hapless cowboy who accidentally becomes president, took more than 72% of the vote, easily defeating his opponent, former First Lady Sandra Torres, Reuters reported.  So what?  We elected a political comedian with very little prior experience in 2008, and then re-elected him in 2012. 

POLLING LATEST – From TIME:   GOP presidential candidates Donald Trump and Ben Carson are tied for the top spot in the Iowa primary with 27% of the vote, according to a new CBS News poll, the latest to show the two competing for the nomination.  Two other CBS news polls released at the same time show Trump and Carson as the top two candidates in the early-voting states of New Hampshire and South Carolina, although Trump maintains a clear lead over Carson in both of those states. In South Carolina, Trump has 40% of the vote, compared with Carson’s 23%. In New Hampshire, Trump has 38% of the vote while Carson has 12%.  There are already rumblings, from Bill Kristol and others, about a third party should Trump actually win the GOP nomination. 

October 25, 2015       Permalink

THE WHITE FACTOR – AT 11:58 A.M. ET:  It's a delicate subject, race.  But it's an inevitable subject in any election campaign.   Does Hillary Clinton have a race problem?  No, I don't mean the kind you're thinking.  Another kind of race problem.  From The Wall Street Journal: 

One finding in this week’s Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll stands out for its potential to reframe the presidential election: The dramatically dim view that white voters—particularly white men—have of Hillary Clinton.

One prospect for Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has been that she could expand President Barack Obama‘s winning coalition by retaining his firm hold on minority voters while improving on his weak showing among white voters. Mr. Obama won a mere 39% of white voters in 2012 – the smallest share of any winning presidential candidate in a two-person race.

Even if Democrats can’t match Mr. Obama’s strong 93% support among African-Americans, or 71% among Latinos, many strategists have argued, the party will be in good shape in 2016. Because minority voters are a growing presence in the electorate each cycle, the Democratic nominee can win a smaller share of those voters and still build a comfortable majority.

But what if the Democrats can’t match Mr. Obama’s meager share of white voters? What if they underperform his 39% showing?

That prospect has seemed remote. But as Mrs. Clinton steams toward her party’s nomination, it’s now a possibility that merits consideration—and one that could force some reworking of the electoral math.

As WSJ’s Peter Nicholas wrote on Tuesday, this week’s Journal/NBC News poll found that 64% of white men hold an unfavorable view of Mrs. Clinton, compared with just 26% who see her in a positive light. That’s a gap of 38 points.

COMMENT:  We are now in the race, gender, and ethnicity generation.  Young people are taught to think in those terms.  But it's the proverbial two-edged sword.  Sometimes the group that seems to be fading gets good and angry, and turns up at the polls.  This could be Hillary's nightmare.

I sure hope so.

October 25, 2015       Permalink

HARD TO BELIEVE – AT 11:42 A.M. ET:  I am not a fan of Donald Trump.  Colorful yes.  Entertaining yes.  Presidential no.  But a new poll shows that most Republicans believe he has the best chance of winning next year's election.  My head is spinning.  From AP: 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican voters view Donald Trump as their strongest general election candidate, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that highlights the sharp contrast between the party's voters and its top professionals regarding the billionaire businessman's ultimate political strength.

Seven in 10 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump could win in November 2016 if he is nominated, and that's the most who say so of any candidate. By comparison, 6 in 10 say the same for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who, like Trump, has tapped into the powerful wave of antiestablishment anger defining the early phases of the 2016 contest.

"It's the lifelong establishment politicians on both sides that rub me the wrong way," said registered Republican Joe Selig, a 60-year-old carpenter from Vallejo, California. "I think Trump is more electable. He's strong. We need strength these days."

Trump and Carson are considered among the least electable general election candidates by the Republican Party's professionals, those who are in the business of helping candidates run campaigns and win elections.

Experienced political strategists note that winning a general election and winning the Republican nomination are often very different tasks. The GOP's most conservative voters — a group that is older and whiter than the nation as a whole — wield extraordinary influence in picking the nominee. Independents, moderate voters and minorities are far more important in general elections that draw many more people to the polls.

COMMENT:  Conventional wisdom seems out the window in this presidential cycle.  I still maintain that the Republican race will eventually shake out, and we'll see the numbers move toward other candidates, particularly Marco Rubio.  But I could be very wrong, and, given the upheaval in the party, I wouldn't bet on anything.

October 25,  2015     Permalink

VICIOUS OBAMA – AT 10:56 A.M. ET:  More attention should be paid to the viciousness of many of Obama's comments.  He demeans and slanders all the time, but the media doesn't seem to notice.  He also gets things wildly wrong.  But, hey, it's just another "narrative."  From John Hinderaker at Powerline:

Yesterday President Obama riffed in front of a Democratic audience, attacking the only enemies he cares about–Republicans. He described Republicans as “extreme,” and said, among other things, “Washington Republicans are alone on their own shrinking island.”

Put aside the hatefulness for a moment. Like so much that Obama says, this characterization is delusional. National Journal published this map of the United States, by Congressional district, after the 2014 election. It can easily be seen that one of our parties is turning into a “shrinking island,” but it isn’t the Republicans:

Currently, Republicans control the House by a whopping 247-188 margin, and the Senate 54-46. But those aren’t the most important numbers: at the state level, the GOP is more dominant than it has been for almost a century. As of 2015, 32 states have Republican governors, compared with only 18 that are governed by Democrats. Republicans control a stunning 68 of the nation’s 98 partisan legislative chambers, more than double the Democrats’ 30 chambers.

COMMENT:  It's true.  Take a look at the map that John refers to.  The Republican Party may poll as "unpopular," but individual Republicans do not.

However, the presidency is still the big prize.  If our side doesn't win the White House next year, any recovery from the Obama years would be lost, or at least postponed for a very long time.

October 25,  2015     Permalink